Beyond the Flood: A Leadership Lesson in Crisis Management

“If I had to extract only one key insight from ‘The Art of War’ book by Sun Tzu, it needed to be… ‘Anticipate and do the pre-work’.”

Atip Muangsuwan
CEO Coach and Coach Supervisor

For every leader, the question is not if a crisis will hit, but when. And when it does, the quality of your leadership—specifically, your skill in crisis management—will be tested in the most public and unforgiving way. A recent event in Thailand serves as a stark, real-world case study for leaders everywhere.

Following devastating floods in Hat Yai, Songkhla province, media reports painted a grim picture of crisis management failure. Residents were stranded for days without food or water, expressing desperation that “no authorities had come to assist them.” Experts were quick to point the finger at a systemic failure of both local and central government.

This situation is a painful reminder of a timeless truth, one articulated over two millennia ago by the legendary strategist, “Sun Tzu” in The Art of War:

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”

This principle cuts to the heart of effective crisis management. The “victory” Sun Tzu speaks of is not achieved in the midst of chaos; it is secured long before the crisis even begins. The flooded streets of Hat Yai are not just a result of a natural disaster, but a consequence of a leadership failure to “win first”—to anticipate, prepare, and build a resilient system.

What “Winning First” Looks Like in Modern Crisis Management

The leaders in Hat Yai were forced to “go to war” with the flood without having secured a prior victory. They were reacting, scrambling, and seeking to win a battle they had already lost in the planning stages. For today’s leaders, “winning first” translates into three non-negotiable actions:

1. Anticipation and Scenario Planning:
   Victorious leaders don’t wait for a crisis to read the manual. They invest time and resources in identifying potential risks. For a city like Hat Yai, known to be flood-prone, this means having detailed, actionable plans for different flood severity levels. Where are the evacuation routes? Where are the relief supplies stockpiled? Which teams are responsible for what? Without this, the response is inherently chaotic.
2. Building Robust Communication Systems:
   In a crisis, information is as critical as food and water. The reports of people feeling abandoned signal a catastrophic breakdown in communication. “Winning first” means having sufficient communication channels (radio, SMS alerts, social media protocols) to direct citizens, coordinate responding units, and provide clear, authoritative updates. Silence creates a vacuum filled by fear and misinformation.
3. Empowering Decentralized Decision-Making:
   A central command that is slow to react or out of touch with ground reality is a liability. Sun Tzu valued flexibility and local initiative. Effective crisis management requires training and empowering local teams to make critical decisions without waiting for orders from the top. If a local team in a Hat Yai district had the authority and resources to distribute supplies immediately, the “days without help” narrative could have been avoided.

Turning Lesson into Action: A Leader’s Checklist

The Hat Yai flood is a cautionary tale, but it can be a transformative one for your organization. Ask yourself these questions to see if you are a “victorious warrior” preparing for your next crisis:

• Have we identified our top three potential crises? (e.g., data breach, supply chain collapse, public relations disaster, etc.)
• Do we have a clear, simple, and accessible crisis playbook? Not a 100-page document, but a quick-action guide.
• Is our communication plan effective and reliable? Does it account for power outages or network failures?
• Have we clearly defined decision-making authority? Who can shut down a server, issue a public statement, or authorize emergency funds when you are unreachable?
• When was the last time we drilled our plan? A plan that hasn’t been tested is merely a theory.

Crisis management is not a reactive skill; it is a proactive discipline. It is the hard, often unglamorous work done in peacetime that determines your fate in war. Don’t wait for your “flood” to hit before you start seeking to win. Emulate the victorious warrior. Do the pre-work, build your resilient systems, and secure your victory now.

How is your organization preparing to “win first”?

About Atip Muangsuwan: Coach Atip is an executive leadership coach who specializes in helping high-achieving leaders overcome internal barriers to unlock their full potential and drive organizational success. Through a blend of strategic frameworks and profound personal insights, he empowers leaders in transforming their mindsets, emotional states, and behaviors for lasting impact.